Market News
Looking to buy or sell a home on the Oregon Coast ?
4th Quarter 2009 - This is a recording: Opportunity Abounds !
Inventory is still high compared to the boom years as we move into 2010. Inventory has however dropped since the summer months. This is due to properties steadily moving off the market and as seller's pull their homes off the market for the winter season.
1st Quarter 2009 - Opportunity Abounds !
The real estate market in the greater Lincoln City Area is still evolving as we’re primarily a second/vacation home market. These type of markets usually takes the longest to recover especially in an economic downturn. The first quarter average sold price of a home dropped @ 34% from the same period of time in 2008.
Buyers today are still focused on the foreclosure/distress property market and they are not limiting themselves to a particular area. The majority of the market activity is still below the $300,000 range. We have lost potential buyers who have purchased foreclosed properties in other areas of the coast and in the Portland area as well.
Market Bottom Signals ?
However, we’re seeing the slight improvement in the market hold if not improve that began about the end of February. The increase in the percentage of listings with accepted offers we saw then is holding. While this percentage is still below ‘normal’ levels, hopefully it signals a positive change in the market. The number of pended listings are starting to fill the full spectrum of price ranges which is another positive indication.
We’re also seeing an increase in the average sold price of a home that has closed in the past 30 Days as compared to the average sold price for the first quarter of 2009. Check out our Market Snapshot for 05/24/2009. Please note however, with our small market there is a room for statistical error. If this trend continues for the next couple months it will definitely signal a change in the market and a possibly market bottom.
The lending situation seems to be a case of one step forward and another step back. Interest rates for conventional loans seem to be holding below 5%. Jumbo rates seem to be slowly falling which is good news for homes selling above @ $417,000. The impact of the stimulus package is seems questionable although the re-financing of homes is up as people are taking advantage of the low interest rates.
The guidelines for the relationship between lenders and appraisers have changed and this along with the increase in re-financing, has increased the time it takes to process a loan. Underwriters are holding appraisers to stricter appraising criteria and even requesting 2nd appraiser reviews. Finding financing for unusual properties (condos, duplex etc.) or stated income buyers is still a challenge or subject to higher interest rates.
The economy continues to be a challenge as unemployment rates are still expected to increase over the next few months even though the rate of increase for unemployment seems to have peaked. The financial markets seem to be in a recovery mode yet investors are wary and quick to react in case of another downturn in the market. While consumer confidence seems to be improving, saving’s rates are increasing too as people are still uncertain as to where the economy is headed.
We’re hopeful the trends we have been seeing will signify a change and recovery in our local real estate market. We’ll continue to monitor the market as we feel there are definite market opportunities in these times.
Questions, comments? Let me know.
1st Quarter 2009 - Buyer's Market
Not the words Seller's want to hear but it's the reality of our economy. Inventory is still high and it is a great opportunity for Buyers. Prices have dropped about @ 25% based on average sale prices from 4th Quarter last year and this seems to be holding up so far this quarter.
The good news is this is less than the 50% drop we're experiencing in the financial markets. The number of unit sales are almost exactly the same for the same time period last year so if we're not at the bottom, we're bouncing along consistently.
Oh yes, my New Years resolution is to update this more consistently.
March End Update - April Fools comes Early !
Okay, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong. The minute I hear the Fed has concerns about inflation and will hold on interest rates, Bear Sterns goes under and the Fed drops it's rates. The concern to avoid a financial crisis in the midst of a recession was overwhelming and the right thing to do.
The good news is the buyers have been coming back along with the weather ! They are looking to purchase before the market turns and while interest rates are still low. One client is more focusing on buying before interest rates increase as the Fed still has inflation concerns. They feel any reduction in price will be outweight by their increase in monthly payments as the interest rate climbs.
Got any thoughts on this ? Email me at ottercoast@earthlink.net !
March 2008 Market Update: Greater Lincoln City Area
The increase in the conforming loan rates turned out to be a myth that affected only a few markets nationwide. The news media headlines continues to report trouble in the real estate and financial sectors. The Fed may reduce rates however, the weakening dollar and potential inflation risks may cause the Fed to change their mind.
Is there any good news in this market ?
The positive news in the market is we're starting to see increased activity in closed sales climb up to the $600,000 range. Buyers in this range have almost been non-existent in the previous months. The weather seems to be improving (knock on wood) and the spring break period is right in head of us.
Even though the % of homes with accepted offers remains low, we are still seeing buyer interest increase as people are trying to time their purchases before the market takes off again. This low percentage is partially due to the impact of the seasonal increase in our inventory.
Finding properties people want is still a challenge even though the inventory is up. Given ours is a vacation market with many unique vacation homes. Thus, we are still encouraging people to purchase a home in this market when they find one they like as chances are, we may not be able to find another house like it.
We'll keep you updated on the market. If you have any questions, please feel free to call or email for the latest information.
1st Quarter 2008 Summary
In the greater Lincoln City area, we have seen the number on houses sold in 2007 drop @ 35% from 2006. However, the average price of a home is still holding and the medium price appears to be up about 10%. I believe this reflects a higher percentage of new construction homes being on the market.
It feels like the market is picking up a little since the beginning of the year. We have had an increase in the number of inquiries by Buyers however, it’s still too early to tell if this is a trend or just the effect of the improvement in the weather.
The percentage of listings with accepted offers is low at about 6% and marginally improving. The total number of listings on the market has fallen since last summer but this is mainly due to people pulling their houses off the market due to the slow sales. We expect the number of listings to increase as we get close to the summer and our selling season.
Other factors affecting the market are lender’s have been tightening up their loan criteria to buyers and with appraisers. The slowdown in sales have been a challenge for appraisers finding comparables to justify prices in our market lately.
There are positive signs about the market. Interest rates are down, the stock market is in a state of flux and the jumbo loan limit will potentially be raised. Congress is considering an economic incentive package while, will not affect the real estate market directly, could help soften the recession and help instill confidence back in the economy.
Many experts looking at the market are pointing to a recovery in the real estate market in 2009 although we now hearing some back off of this a little. Mainly, these people are generalizing about the national market overall where there is weakness in the mid-west and sunbelt states. The northwest and east coast sections of the country are not seeing the big drop in prices or sales.
Given this, I think the smart buyer will be looking to buy this year. Home inventory and selection will be up and it’s a great opportunity to purchase before the market takes off again. For sellers, pricing the property right, addressing maintenance issues and improving curb appeal will be critical.
Of course, being in the real estate business creates some bias. I do feel confident the real estate market will come back and it’s only a matter of time.
The baby boomer generation will still be a force in the real estate market here on the coast as they seek a relaxing lifestyle. They are healthier and concerned about the economy, thus they are working longer than anticipated.
Plus, we’re seeing more families purchasing vacation homes on the coast which we did not expect. It’s not only a great long term investment but it provides a place for the family to get away and spend quality time together.
Please check our website again for market updates. Please call or email if you have any questions or would like an update on our coastal market or other specific areas of the coast.
Please note: The data source for the information is the Lincoln County Multiple Listing Service, information is deemed reliable however, is not guaranteed.
Enjoy Life, Buy Real Estate !
